World / Weather — The Cyclone Arnab landfall is now a dated forecast, not a rumour. A depression that formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday, October 24, 2026, is expected to strengthen step by step — deep depression on October 25, cyclonic storm on October 26, severe cyclonic storm on October 27 — and cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the forenoon of October 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm, with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
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The Cyclone Arnab landfall forecast rests on the IMD's Saturday-evening bulletin, reported by the Press Trust of India (PTI). The well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 5:30 p.m. on Saturday about 510 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands, 820 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 910 km east-southeast of Kakinada, 1,020 km east of Machilipatnam and 1,100 km east of Bapatla. The system takes the name Arnab — Bangladesh's proposed name, meaning "ocean," on the regional naming roster — when it reaches cyclonic-storm strength, which the IMD expects on the morning of October 26.
The intensification ladder, day by day
The IMD's forecast is unusually explicit about the staircase. The depression is first expected to move nearly southwards and intensify into a deep depression, then gradually recurve west to north-westwards over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal by October 25. Continuing west-northwestwards, it is forecast to become a cyclonic storm over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 26, a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by the morning of October 27, and then a very severe cyclonic storm reaching the west-central Bay near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the morning of October 28, before crossing the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by that forenoon.
That is four upgrades in roughly four days. Each step has a practical meaning on the ground: a deep depression brings heavy rain and rough seas; a cyclonic storm brings gale winds and a formal name; a severe and then very severe cyclonic storm — sustained winds of 115–125 kmph at landfall, gusting to 140 kmph — is the class of storm that tears roofs, snaps power lines and poles, uproots trees and floods low-lying coastal roads, even before the rain is counted.
Rainfall: the longer threat
Under the system's influence, the IMD forecast rainfall over parts of Andhra Pradesh from October 26 to 29. Thunderstorms with lightning are expected at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on October 26, 27 and 28. Scattered heavy to very heavy rain, with extremely heavy rain likely at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, is forecast for October 27 and again for October 28, with heavy rain continuing in parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 29. Adjoining south Odisha is inside the IMD's pre-cyclone watch area, with heavy to extremely heavy rainfall possible there between October 27 and 29 — serious enough that President Droupadi Murmu's scheduled October 28–29 visit to Odisha has been postponed as a precaution and rescheduled for November 4–5, according to officials cited in Indian reporting.
The fishermen count tells the real story
The most concrete measure of the state's preparation is a number that rarely makes headlines. The IMD issued its cyclone alert to fishermen on October 22 — two days before the depression even formed — advising them not to venture to sea until October 29 and directing every boat already out to return immediately. Andhra Pradesh has a 1,053 km coastline across 12 coastal districts, with 555 marine villages, 350 fish landing centres and 30,043 fishing boats. As of Saturday, 29,952 of those boats had safely returned, and the Fisheries Department was tracking the remaining 91, expecting them to reach the coast by Saturday night, with control rooms monitoring boat movements continuously.
Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu reviewed the situation on Saturday and directed officials to remain alert as the system intensifies, including warning people in low-lying areas. That sequence — alert on October 22, boats home by October 24, landfall on October 28 — is what a functioning warning chain looks like, and it is the single biggest reason modern Bay of Bengal cyclones kill a fraction of the people they once did.
Why this matters
The Bay of Bengal is, historically, the deadliest cyclone basin on Earth. Warm water, a funnel-shaped coastline and dense, low-lying deltas turned storms into mass-casualty events for centuries: the 1970 Bhola cyclone killed hundreds of thousands, and the 1999 Odisha super cyclone killed around 10,000. The modern record is different not because the storms weakened, but because the system around them changed. Cyclone Phailin in 2013, a very severe storm of comparable class, struck Odisha after the evacuation of roughly a million people and killed fewer than 50. Cyclone Hudhud in 2014 hit Visakhapatnam itself — the northern anchor of this week's landfall stretch — and its damage to the port city remains the local reference point for what 140-kmph-class gusts do to power, trees and signage.
Arnab will test the same machinery in Andhra Pradesh rather than Odisha: the IMD's four-day intensification ladder, the fisheries recall, district control rooms and low-lying-area warnings. The forecast also carries the usual honest uncertainty. A landfall window "between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam" is a stretch of roughly 380 km of coastline; where the centre crosses will decide which districts take the eyewall winds and which take mainly rain. And a storm forecast to peak as it reaches the coast leaves little margin if it intensifies faster than projected on October 27.
Who is exposed, who is ready
Coastal fishing communities are the most exposed group and, on the Saturday numbers, the best accounted for — 99.7 percent of the state's boats were already home. Port operations at Visakhapatnam and Kakinada, coastal power and road infrastructure, and low-lying settlements in the Godavari and Krishna deltas face the wind and flood risk. Inland Rayalaseema faces the secondary threat: thunderstorms and the rain that follows the system ashore through October 29, when saturated ground, not wind, does the damage. Odisha, just north of the track, is preparing for the rain fringe rather than the core — but the postponement of a presidential visit signals how seriously officials there are taking the October 28–29 window.
What happens next
The milestones are dated. Watch for the deep-depression upgrade on October 25 and, critically, whether the system follows the recurvature the IMD projects; the cyclonic-storm naming as Arnab on October 26; and the severe-cyclone upgrade on October 27, when evacuation decisions for the lowest-lying villages in the Bapatla–Visakhapatnam stretch will have to be final. If the forecast holds, the forenoon of Wednesday, October 28 is when the Andhra coast finds out whether the warning chain built since Phailin and Hudhud works as designed in Andhra Pradesh too. Read our earlier coverage of the September Bay of Bengal deep depression and of Hurricane Vance's Pacific landfall for how these landfall forecasts have played out this season.
Sources
- India Meteorological Department bulletin via Press Trust of India (PTI), published by The Daily Jagran, October 25, 2026 (IST): depression position at 5:30 p.m. October 24, intensification ladder to a very severe cyclonic storm, landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28 with winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph, rainfall outlook October 26–29, fishermen's alert and boat-return figures, and Chief Minister Naidu's review.
- Urban Acres, "Cyclone Arnab: Andhra Coast Faces 140 kmph Gusts," October 25, 2026 (IST): IMD pre-cyclone watch for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts and the October 25/26/28 milestone sequence.
- International News and Views, "Bay of Bengal Cyclone Alert," October 25, 2026: IMD October 24 forecast summary and the postponement of President Droupadi Murmu's October 28–29 Odisha visit to November 4–5 as a precaution.
- The Daily Jagran (JND), October 23, 2026: IMD cyclone alert, the naming of the system as Arnab if it reaches cyclonic-storm strength (Bangladesh's proposed name, meaning "ocean"), and extremely heavy rainfall warnings for coastal Andhra Pradesh on October 27–28 and Odisha on October 28.