Dodgers NLDS Game 3: Hernández's 17th Playoff Homer Carries L.A. Past Braves
Dodgers NLDS Game 3
ATLANTA — October belongs to Kiké Hernández again. In Dodgers NLDS Game 3 on Tuesday night, Hernández crushed a fourth-inning, two-run homer off Braves ace Chris Sale, Freddie Freeman followed with a 399-foot solo shot two batters later, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto carved up Atlanta with 10 strikeouts over seven innings as Los Angeles beat the Braves 3-1 at Truist Park. The Dodgers lead the best-of-five series 2-1 and can reach the NLCS with a win in Game 4 this afternoon.
For Hernández, it was the 17th home run of his postseason career — moving him into the top 20 in MLB history and within one of Reggie Jackson's 18, the number that earned Jackson the name "Mr. October."
Why this matters
Here's what should stop you cold: Hernández played 41 games this season and hit four home runs. He is not a star. He is a 13-year utility man whose postseason OPS (.832) dwarfs his regular-season mark (.706) — a player who, as OptaStats notes, is the only man in MLB history with 100-plus combined career home runs (regular season plus postseason) to hit at least 10 percent of them in the playoffs. Dave Roberts benched Tommy Edman to start Hernández against Sale, citing "intensity, urgency," and the manager's faith in what he calls "Kiké dust" was rewarded within four innings. The deeper significance is about how October baseball actually works: it keeps rewarding teams that trust October track records over September form. And then there's the second story hiding in the box score. All 10 Dodgers runs this postseason have come via home runs — the longest such streak to open a postseason in MLB history. That is the modern October formula laid bare: patient at-bats, empty swings, and the long ball. It works until the day it doesn't.
How we got here
The series arc made this a pressure game. Los Angeles took Game 1, 5-3, on October 3; Atlanta answered with a 3-2 win on October 4 to even the series and seize momentum. Facing Chris Sale — the Braves' best weapon — Roberts made the call that will define this series either way: Edman to the bench, Hernández in against the lefty. The fourth inning wrote the story: Hernández's two-run shot off Sale broke it open, and Freeman — robbed of a would-be homer by Mauricio Dubón's leaping catch at the left-field wall an inning earlier — got his revenge with the 399-footer two batters later. The pitching duel went to Yamamoto decisively: seven innings, four hits, one run, 10 strikeouts, one walk. Sale's line — five innings, seven hits, three runs, seven strikeouts, no walks, 95 pitches — was good. It just wasn't good enough.
What the numbers mean
Seventeen career postseason homers puts Hernández in the top 20 all time and one swing behind Reggie Jackson's 18. Read that again: a utility player is one October homer from tying Mr. October. The OptaStats split is the real signature — no player in history with 100-plus combined homers has concentrated his power in the postseason quite like this. The OPS gap (.832 in October versus .706 in the regular season across 13 years) is not noise; it is a career pattern. Then zoom out to the team level: 10 runs, all via the home run, the longest streak to begin any postseason ever. The Dodgers are not manufacturing a single run this October. They are living entirely on the three-run-or-nothing swing — a formula that has produced a 2-1 series lead and a whole lot of held breath.
Who wins, who loses
Winners first: Roberts, whose Edman benching reads as genius until proven otherwise; Hernández, whose October legend keeps compounding with every swing; and Yamamoto, who just posted an ace-level October line against a lineup built to punish mistakes. The losers: Atlanta, which burned its ace's start and got nothing for it — Sale took the loss, and the Braves now need two straight wins to survive. And one genuine risk for the Dodgers: Miguel Rojas left in the eighth inning after an apparent injury on a swing. If the everyday infielder is limited, it strains the bench depth Roberts just leaned on so heavily. The Braves' only run came on Drake Baldwin's groundout in the fifth — a quiet line in a loud game.
What happens next
Game 4 is today — Wednesday, October 7, 6pm ET / 3pm PT at Truist Park, on FS1. A Dodgers win ends the series and sends them to the NLCS. A Braves win forces a decisive Game 5 on Friday, October 9, at Dodger Stadium. Watch Rojas's status before first pitch — his availability shapes Roberts' bench chess. One honest caveat: this analysis was written before Game 4 was played, and October has a way of humbling projections. But the Dodgers are one win from the NLCS, and Kiké Hernández is one homer from Mr. October. That is not a bad place to be.
Sources
- New York Post — Hernández's postseason home-run history and OptaStats context.
- New York Post — Game 3 scoring, pitching lines and Roberts' lineup decision.
- USA Today — live game account and final score.
- USA Today — NLDS Game 4 and potential Game 5 schedule.
- CompuServe — game recap and player-status context.