Politics / Polling — The major national trackers put President Donald Trump's approval between 31% and 39% on October 22, averaging about 38% — with Republican approval holding at 70–75% and independents driving the fall.
President Donald Trump's approval rating stands between 31% and 39% across major national polls published as of Thursday, October 22, 2026, twelve days before the midterm elections. RealClearPolitics' average puts him at 38.3% and Ballotpedia's tracker at 38%. Quinnipiac University has him at 34%, Reuters/Ipsos at 34%, CNN/SSRS at 33%, and The Economist/YouGov at 38%. Among Republicans, approval holds between 70% and 75% across the same surveys — the fall is concentrated among independents and Democrats, not his base.
The numbers in context
Presidential approval in the high 30s at midterm time is historically dangerous territory for the president's party, which typically loses House seats even at higher ratings. For comparison inside the polling record itself: the lowest single-poll approval ever recorded for a president remains Harry Truman's 22% in February 1952 — Trump is well above that floor, and his Republican base loyalty (70–75%) is stronger than the headline number suggests. What the spread between pollsters shows — a five-point gap between Quinnipiac/Reuters at 34% and the RCP average at 38.3% — is the normal methodological range between likely-voter and registered-voter screens this close to an election, not evidence that any single poll is "wrong." The average is the honest number: about 38%, stable in that band through October.
Why this matters
Approval is the weather system every other midterm story moves inside. It explains why the president is spending Thursday rallying in Iowa — a state he won by 13 points — why some Republican candidates there have broken with him over the Iran war and fuel prices, and why his administration has rolled out diesel waivers, an $8 billion farm support programme and fuel-stock measures in October. It also explains the opposition's strategy: Democratic lawsuits and advertising this month consistently frame the election as a referendum on the president, and Marist's Iowa polling found 35% of likely voters calling their vote a vote against Trump, against 21% calling it a vote for him. A referendum election at 38% approval is the scenario incumbent parties dread — and the scenario opposition parties pay to create.
What the numbers do not say
Three cautions belong in any honest reading. First, national approval is not a district map: Republicans can lose the national mood and still hold seats where their voters are concentrated. Second, approval measures the president, not the alternative — voters disapproving of Trump are not automatically voting Democratic, as the 21% "vote for him" figure in Iowa shows a motivated base remains. Third, late-deciding voters moved toward the president's party in several recent cycles; twelve days is a long time in a campaign being fought over fuel prices that can move $5 a barrel in a day. Critics of polling will note the industry's recent misses; pollsters answer that an average across six independent houses, all landing in the same band, is the most reliable signal available — imperfect, but not noise.
What happens next
The final pre-election trackers publish in the last week of October. The number to watch is not the average but the independent subsample and the "finances worsened" question — 42% of Iowa likely voters, including more than half of independents, told Marist their finances had worsened in the past year. If that figure rises in the final polls, approval will follow it down; if fuel prices fall, it may recover just enough to matter in the closest House districts.
Sources
Polling as published October 22, 2026: RealClearPolitics average (38.3%), Ballotpedia tracker (38%), Quinnipiac University (34%), Reuters/Ipsos (34%), CNN/SSRS (33%), The Economist/YouGov (38%); Republican approval range 70–75% across surveys. Marist Iowa likely-voter polling, October 2026, via Reuters.